Not Yet A Summer Forecast.
Back in October I pooh poohed "experts" suggestions of a harsher Winter than the previous freezing, dangerous one. I did own up to the lack of rain but suggested high winds would feature prominently and if my thinking proved accurate, as much as weather allows, a warm, early spring would ensue. I also suggested Subrosa's fitting of winter tyres, though laudable, might be rarely required!
Now as March enters its final week or so, where are we? Again the prolonged dry weather needs a closer look. I'll do that soon. However I also mentioned the mild winter and pressure distribution and some reasons for why it might also see the ITCZ migrate Northwards earlier, bringing about this early Spring.
" The location of the ITCZ varies throughout the year and while it remains near the equator, the ITCZ over land ventures farther north or south than the ITCZ over the oceans due to the variation in land temperatures. The location of the ITCZ can vary as much as 40° to 45° of latitude north or south of the equator based on the pattern of land and ocean." Snipped from this.
Note the "variation in land temperatures", this the reason for my expecting an early migration, based on the minimal land freeze of the mild Winter. Now evidence is appearing with the next few days looking more Summery than Springlike.
The dominant and more historic pressure over the UK has returned, after over three years, to tropical maritime, after a blocking polar continental influence. That influence brought about the drier air to the East and South East, whilst the West was wetter and less warm with its closer proximity to the maritime push.
A major theory of mine is that the earthquakes and tsunami aftermaths of the last three years brought about a movement and vibration of the Planet on its vertical axis, thereby shifting forces and pressure into unusual patterns. This appears to be rectifying itself slowly but more regular, seasonal and experienced, weather has still to settle down.
Now this settling period still seems to be producing anomalies. As in some American States, including Washington. Whilst we bask in our early Spring sunshine. A further anomaly is where has the rain gone? Now I also believe that decades of nuclear testing has influenced our Planet and therefore weather and climate.
Our oceans are filthy and evaporation possibly compromised by this and so a reduction in water vapour in the upper air is feasible.
I'm not a supporter of AGW theory but very much a believer that mankind's laissez faire approach to nest tidying leaves a lot to be desired. I really believe that solid waste is far more a problem for us than these atmospheric whacko CO2 theories. This thinking also leans towards ground based solid waste as a greater, albeit potentially, easier target to overcome. If we add the nuclear testing, so beloved of the mighty, then the puny blame laid at Joe Public's door is pretty hypocritical to say the least.
Anyhow, Nature is greater than man and far more able to recover rapidly, as and when we are no longer in existence. So this drought will pass. The rains will return and our creaking infrastructure will once again be found wanting. The short termism of political and corporate thinking will triumph, as ever, in its total inability to think long term and punch a giant hole in their restricted box that passes for brains.
If you do live on a flood plain think about the storms gathering to flood your homes and lands. If you don't you can bet the farm our erstwhile idiots in power won't. I'll leave you with one of the glories of this early Spring to lighten the tone!
This baby wondering who its Old neighbour is!