Such a prescient, beautiful sentiment.

Wednesday, 26 October 2011

A Long Range Weather Forecast.

UK 2011-12 Winter.

I thought I'd depart from my usual stuff and offer you an Oldrightie winter forecast. Like all weather interested individuals I will say  it's a joyously unpredictable science so a pinch of salt on any slippery moments is quite welcome! I shall cover a general picture of the whole of The UK and Ireland. Wish me luck! I have had a lifetime in aviation and from there a general interest in both climatology and meteorology. Here goes.

Most pundits are saying an even colder winter than the last. I disagree. November will be less frequently cold and sustained than last year. Wetter, milder air will be the theme for the middle of this month, bracketed by high pressure, frosty periods, though not long lasting. Scotland will experience longer spells of cold dry air, with the South wetter but milder.

December will be drier throughout The UK with very cold air for many days. Later in The Month some snow will be seen but again less significant and disruptive than 2010. A white Christmas South of The Scottish Highlands patchy.

January will be much breezier than normal. Dominated throughout by high winds. Short respites will bring wetter, milder Atlantic air with only patchy Arctic air dominance mostly later in January.

The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone will begin its Northerly migration late in February and much earlier than normal. A very cold start to February will rapidly give way to hints of an early Spring later and into March. Should these thoughts be reasonably accurate, a very warm Spring and Summer but with frequent heavy rains will follow!

If this turns out utter b****cks please don't shoot me for trying!


  1. You've concocted this just because I've gone to the expense of winter tyres!

  2. HA! For you I hope I'm wrong, then, Subrosa. For millions of others, that I'm correct!

  3. It seems that the US cannot afford to replace its old weather satellites with the new system needed. These do 90% of the weather work involved in forecasting in the US and Europe and other places at present.

  4. Demetrius, if they're the same which predicted AGW, good riddance!

  5. You're braver than the Met Office OR, they daren't publicise their prediction.

    Unlike last year, when they made 'public' & 'private' predictions, which were different. Their strategy then was to be able to proudly proclaim "We got it right", forgetting that with this Interwebby thing, us public were aware of their ruse.

    I retain my Summer Duvet, 'cos Prof Phil Jones at CRU-UEA says it'll get warmer.

  6. Ancient + Tattered Airman26 October 2011 at 22:51

    I am old enough to remember when the meteorological forecasts were said to come from readings taken at the roof of the Air Ministry. No satellites then, but we had weather ships and a supply of dried seaweed and pinecones. Come to think of it, their accuracy was on a par with todays! Isn't progress wonderful?
    My long career in aviation has left me with a rather jaundiced opinion of the Met Office.

  7. The Met Office are too bothered with looking big on the global warming bandstand and the funding that goes with it to concern themselves with trivialities like The Weather for us common folk.

    Did the bloke in your banner get done by the Public Safety goons and can I pinch the pic?

  8. Hi, all, I was out warbling last night so missed your most welcome comments. Banned, I nicked it so may you! A&T&A, the Met Office were superb in World War Two. Now the real meteorologists have gone. Plotting now a forgotten art, buried in a computer programme. Joe, AGW is now climate change. A duvet for all seasons or hours of the night required.

  9. OR @08:46

    AGW was Climate Change; now it's Climate Disruption.

    [Has climate ever been consistent???. Just askin'.]

  10. You are, as ever correct, Joe. No, is the answer to the latter question, I expect you agree?